“The World Trade Organization has more than doubled its forecast for this year’s growth in global merchandise trade volume, from 1.9 percent in March to 3.9 percent, despite disruptions to energy supplies and shipping routes caused by the US-Israeli war against Iran. The revision was driven largely by a surge in trade in AI-enabling goods, such as semiconductors and servers,” reports Human Progress.
For months, the Iran War cut the flow of oil through the Persian Gulf to a small fraction of what it usually has been. In response, China massively reduced imports of oil, relying on its massive oil reserves and conservation and substitution measures to radically cut the use of imported petroleum. Major cities like Cairo and Pakistan’s cultural capital went dark hours early as Egypt and Pakistan imported much less oil due to the Iran War.
Countries outside the Persian Gulf have increased their exports of oil during the Iran War. Brazil‘s daily oil production averaged 4 to 4.5 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026, an increase of about 13% to 19% compared to the same months in 2025.
Argentina‘s oil production reached an all-time record of approximately 902,920 barrels per day in July 2026, compared to an average of around 740,000 to 799,000 barrels per day at various times in 2025.
Guyana averaged 902,000 barrels per day of crude oil production during the first half of 2026, up from an average of 639,000 barrels per day during the same period in 2025. Guyana was once one of the poorest countries in South America. Now, after the discovery of oil offshore, Guyana is richer than any country in South America, and has a per capita income fairly similar to the United States. It unfortunately still has a very high crime rate, although it also has scenic attractions such as Kaieteur Falls.
Angola‘s oil production is expected to rise to an average of 1.14 million barrels per day in 2016, from an average of 1.07 million barrels per day in 2025.
