The Iran war increased oil and diesel prices and cut the flow of fertilizer through the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world. So it will increase hunger in some countries.
But India is well-positioned to avoid a crisis, because it has stored up a lot of rice. “India, the world’s largest rice exporter, is entering a potentially poor monsoon season with its granaries full. Following a series of strong harvests, India has accumulated more than five times its target level of national rice reserves, giving the government a large buffer if future harvests disappoint,” reports The Doomslayer.
Reuters notes that “India’s rice stocks in government warehouses rose 15% from a year ago to a record high for the start of June, while wheat stocks reached a five-year peak…Record rice stocks will help the world’s biggest exporter increase shipments despite concerns over rainfall due to an El Nino weather pattern, while an improvement in wheat inventories will help the federal government tame any price spikes later this year by increasing open market sales.”
Rice production is also expected to fall in southeast Asia due to the Iran war. In April, harvest-ready rice fields were lying idle and farmers were deciding whether to skip planting for the coming season, as spiking fuel and fertilizer costs from the war in the Middle East hit one of the world’s biggest rice-growing regions,” reported Bloomberg News:
Across Southeast Asia, tens of millions of smallholders are struggling to find affordable crop nutrients as well as the diesel needed to run tractors, irrigation pumps and rice planters. In Thailand, some farmers are leaving the crop in the ground as it’s too expensive to harvest.
The Iran war had dire effects on poor Third World countries that had difficulty paying higher fuel and fertilizer prices, resulting in blackouts, driving up malnutrition, harming farmers and food production, resulting in early store closures, and leaving office workers sweltering in the heat.
Mongabay reports that
Global meteorological agencies have confirmed El Niño is here. In India, El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to intensify as the southwest monsoon progresses, confirms the India Meteorological Department’s June bulletin. Experts say the developing El Niño should be treated as a serious climate risk and an early warning, urging timely planning and preparedness rather than alarm….
“There was a high likelihood of El Niño developing during June-August 2026, with probabilities around 80%. The probability of El Niño conditions continuing through August to November is near or above 90%,” says Barbara Tapia Cortes, WMO Technical Coordinator (Services).
Recent updates about a developing El Niño have triggered a wave of headlines warning of droughts, heatwaves and monsoon disruptions, sparking concerns globally. However, while El Niño has been confirmed and is likely to strengthen further, there is still considerable uncertainty about its intensity and impacts on India….
For India, where agriculture, water resources, and urban water supplies remain closely tied to monsoon performance, even a moderate El Niño could have significant consequences.
