The “official” kickoff for the 2020 presidential election is the day after the Nov. 6 midterm elections. Only seven months until another enthralling, action-packed plot line is layered atop the ongoing Trump-TV presidential reality show.
After much thought and consideration, I am predicting that California U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris is likely to be the Democrats’ pick to up against Trump. This forecast is based on five factors, which follow.
1. Harris is a woman
Nothing like stating the obvious. However, from the Democratic perspective, especially among women who are the heart, soul, and energy of the party, the “obvious” is a powerful advantage. Harris’s sex unifies all the passionate loathing for the “misogynist” who currently occupies the White House. Democratic women are still enraged that Trump and his “deplorable” followers defeated their female presidential candidate in 2016.
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Therefore, untold millions of pussy-hat wearing, Trump-hating woman seeking to avenge Hillary Clinton’s defeat and yearning still to break the “glass ceiling” will get on board with another female candidate.
Moreover, when the #MeToo movement and growing female empowerment are added to the mix, a Trump vs. Harris 2020 showdown could potentially be the most vicious gender battle in U.S. history. Clinton vs.Trump will look quaint by comparison.
2. Harris is mixed-race
Stating the obvious redux. The Democratic Party is obsessed with identity politics. Thus, as a mixed-race daughter of immigrants (Harris’s father immigrated to the U.S. from Jamaica in 1961 and her mother from India in 1960), Harris could be portrayed as the political poster child of a “nation of immigrants.”
With leaderless Democrats desperately looking for the “next Obama,” Harris is straight from central casting. Amazingly, back in January 2015, a Washington Post headline asked, “Is Kamala Harris the Next Obama?” two years before she became Sen. Harris on Jan. 3, 2017.
Unfortunately, a potential Trump vs. Harris contest will inject a racial component into the already raging gender battle mentioned above. Remember 2008? From the perspective of the liberal media, voters were “racist” if they did not support Obama. And then in 2016, those who didn’t support Hillary were called “sexist.” With Harris as their 2020 candidate, Dems can brand prospective Trump voters as sexist, racist bigots who are against “progress” and “American values.”
3. Harris will be hailed by the media as America’s new “role model”
Since the mainstream media have been known to build and then reinforce a narrative while slobbering over their preferred presidential candidate, Harris’s story arc needs only a White House ending. Her supporters boast that she is smart, sassy, non-white, well-spoken, experienced, and accomplished. Then, we will be continuously reminded of her liberal activist history complete with YouTube moments of her “standing-up” to white male Republican senators and Trump administration officials (and then fundraising off her “fighting” style). That means from a Democratic perspective, Harris is on her way to becoming America’s new mixed-race female role model.
4. Obama will help Harris with her campaign
With daily reminders of Obama’s many failures as president, the latest being the revelation by Israeli intelligence that Iran maintained a secret nuclear program, his stamp of approval is a mixed blessing at best. Nevertheless, he has long been a fan of Kamala Harris, and the feeling is mutual.
As a senator, she has studiously copied his political playbook. In addition, Harris reportedly has a book in the works that would act as a “white paper” for her candidacy. Then cue the national tour that will set the media all-a-twitter and launch her as a political rock star.
5. Kamala Harris has a strategic advantage over President Trump
Democratic strategists know that Trump’s normal adversarial campaign style, especially name-calling tweets, will be perceived as racist and sexist when used against a candidate who is both a woman and of color.
Furthermore, as a former prosecutor, Harris has a big-mouth gutsy style, and when attacked, she will weaponize Trump’s words to her advantage (while cheered on by the liberal media).
Conventional wisdom would ordinarily dictate that Trump will be forced to campaign on “eggshells,” but since Trump slays conventional wisdom, expect fireworks galore.
None of this of course means that Harris will win the election — or even be nominated. Before that can happen, a conflicted and splintered Democratic Party must sort through a busload of candidates.
Finally, Trump has the power of incumbency, which can never be underestimated. As I recently wrote, “Remember that the last three presidents were re-elected, and they too were often controversial and unpopular. On top of that is the historic re-election rate for incumbents, which stands at 68.7%.”
If Harris does win the Democratic nomination, it will have nothing to do with policy, the economy, or foreign affairs and everything to do with an anger hangover from 2016, a polarized nation obsessed with race and gender, and most important, a presidential political pendulum that often swings from one extreme to the other.
Kamala Harris represents that extreme pendulum swing for Democrats in 2020.
Cross posted at WND