“Global jet fuel supply chains are adapting to wartime turmoil. In April, the head of the International Energy Agency warned that Europe had “maybe six weeks or so (of) jet fuel left” if oil supplies remained disrupted by the Iran war. Instead, imports from the United States, India, and Nigeria, drawn by higher prices in Europe, have staved off shortages so far,” reports The Doomslayer.
In April, an official predicted doom for European air travel:
Europe has “maybe 6 weeks or so (of) jet fuel left,” the head of the International Energy Agency said Thursday in a wide-ranging Associated Press interview, warning of possible flight cancellations “soon” if oil supplies remain blocked by the Iran war.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol painted a sobering picture of the global repercussions of what he called “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced,” stemming from the pinch-off of oil, gas and other vital supplies through the Strait of Hormuz….
Economic pain will be felt unevenly, with some countries “hit worse than the others,” he said, naming Japan, Korea, India, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh as being on the front line of the energy crisis.
“The countries who will suffer the most will not be those whose voice are heard a lot. It will be mainly the developing countries. Poorer countries in Asia, in Africa, and in Latin America,” he said.
“Then it will come to Europe and the Americas,” he added.
But Reuters later reported that the “jet fuel market adapts smoothly to shifting supply routes“:
Global jet fuel demand is expected to average 7.77 million barrels per day this year…little changed from 2025.
With Middle Eastern supply curtailed, buyers are seeking fuel from further afield.
One tanker, the Nord Ventura, sailed for more than a month from Louisiana to deliver about 300,000 barrels of jet fuel to Melbourne, the first such shipment since at least 2017, according to Kpler data.
Europe has sent a rare cargo to the Seychelles and imported barrels from New York Harbour, a region it typically supplies.
Asia has also drawn in cargoes from the U.S. Gulf Coast and Africa, while China has curbed exports to protect domestic supply.
In effect, the market is redistributing supply globally rather than relying on its most efficient routes.
Gas prices have risen much less in the United States than was predicted at the beginning of the Iran war. Some analysts predicted the Iran War would drive gasoline prices above $200 per barrel. But it didn’t. The price of oil is only about $90 per barrel now.
One factor limiting the price increase is because U.S. oil production has risen enormously over the last 20 years, increasing by more than 160%.
Twenty years ago, people wrongly wrote off the oil industry as a dinosaur. Oil production fell after 1970, so people wrongly predicted that oil production would continue to fall ever thereafter — the “peak oil” theory. Based on this prediction, there was even a weekly newspaper column called “peak oil,” written by Tom Whipple, the husband of Democratic politician Mary Margaret Whipple.
But then the fracking revolution came, and oil production boomed. The “peak oil theory was effectively falsified when United States oil production began to increase in 2009 and surpassed the 1970 peak in 2018.”
Technological change has continued to expand oil production in the U.S., making America the world’s biggest oil producer by a substantial margin. “Oil Was Written Off. Now It’s the Most Productive U.S. Industry,” reported Bloomberg News.
On the other hand, the Iran war has had dire effects on poor Third World countries that have difficulty paying higher fuel and fertilizer prices, resulting in blackouts, driving up malnutrition, harming farmers and food production, resulting in early store closures, and leaving office workers sweltering in the heat.
