Shock poll: Clinton plunges to 39%, trails Trump by one point

Shock poll: Clinton plunges to 39%, trails Trump by one point

The difference between the numbers for the two major-party candidates is not statistically significant, and this is just one poll.

Nevertheless, Rasmussen this morning has Hillary Clinton trailing Donald Trump, if by a single percentage point. More shocking still is that Clinton’s support among likely U.S. voters is down to 39%. Trump is at 40%.

Clinton’s support has been trending down from a high of 44% in early August just after the Democratic National Convention. This is her lowest level of support since mid-July. Trump’s support has been eroding, too, from his high of 44% at that time. A one-point lead is statistically insignificant in a survey with a +/- 3 percentage point of margin of error. It highlights, however, that this remains a very close race.

Both major candidates have lost some support this week from voters in their respective parties. Trump now has the backing of 71% of Republicans, down from 76% a week ago. Clinton has 73% of the Democratic vote, down from 79% in the previous survey. Trump attracts 15% of Democrats, while 12% of Republicans prefer Clinton. The GOP nominee continues to hold a small lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party, this week leading 36% to 28%.

Again, this is a single snapshot and very possibly an outlier. The Real Clear Politics average shows Clinton with a shrunken but still statistically significant lead of 4.6%, which is above the margin for error. Clinton, according to RCP, stands at 46.6%, Trump at 43%.

poll
Image: Real Clear Politics poll for Sept.1, 2016

The poll does show Trump leading in one other poll — the Los Angeles Times/USC poll —which has Trump at 45%, Clinton at 42%.

 

Howard Portnoy

Howard Portnoy

Howard Portnoy has written for The Blaze, HotAir, NewsBusters, Weasel Zippers, Conservative Firing Line, RedCounty, and New York’s Daily News. He has one published novel, Hot Rain, (G. P. Putnam’s Sons), and has been a guest on Radio Vice Online with Jim Vicevich, The Alana Burke Show, Smart Life with Dr. Gina, and The George Espenlaub Show.


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