The difference between the numbers for the two major-party candidates is not statistically significant, and this is just one poll.
Nevertheless, Rasmussen this morning has Hillary Clinton trailing Donald Trump, if by a single percentage point. More shocking still is that Clinton’s support among likely U.S. voters is down to 39%. Trump is at 40%.
Clinton’s support has been trending down from a high of 44% in early August just after the Democratic National Convention. This is her lowest level of support since mid-July. Trump’s support has been eroding, too, from his high of 44% at that time. A one-point lead is statistically insignificant in a survey with a +/- 3 percentage point of margin of error. It highlights, however, that this remains a very close race.
Both major candidates have lost some support this week from voters in their respective parties. Trump now has the backing of 71% of Republicans, down from 76% a week ago. Clinton has 73% of the Democratic vote, down from 79% in the previous survey. Trump attracts 15% of Democrats, while 12% of Republicans prefer Clinton. The GOP nominee continues to hold a small lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party, this week leading 36% to 28%.
Again, this is a single snapshot and very possibly an outlier. The Real Clear Politics average shows Clinton with a shrunken but still statistically significant lead of 4.6%, which is above the margin for error. Clinton, according to RCP, stands at 46.6%, Trump at 43%.
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The poll does show Trump leading in one other poll — the Los Angeles Times/USC poll —which has Trump at 45%, Clinton at 42%.
