Analyst says, ‘Protracted civil war will fragment Afghanistan’ without U.S. troops

Analyst says, ‘Protracted civil war will fragment Afghanistan’ without U.S. troops

Muslim terrorists are biding their time in Pakistan, waiting for another chance to regain control of Afghanistan. Chaos is expected, similar to what’s being seen in Iraq, if a complete withdrawal of U.S. troops happens at the end of this year.

“The central government is bound to crack under pressure from al-Qaeda,” if U.S. troops leave, according to James Carafano, an analyst at the Heritage Foundation, who adds:

The best-case scenario is the country fragments into protracted civil war with  sides supported by U.S., India, Pakistan and Iran. Al-Qaeda will be back because [the] Haqqani Network will sponsor them.

Analysts also assume “the Taliban and their al-Qaeda allies have been keeping an eye on the unfolding events in Iraq since the total drawn-down occurred in Dec. 2011,” according to the Washington Times. All U.S. troops would pull out of Afghanistan if President Hamid Karzai doesn’t sign a new security agreement with the U.S.

Such an agreement would keep 14,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan to train and join Afghans on counterterrorism raids. Karzai has balked at signing the agreement because of what he called, “arbitrary acts and oppression” by U.S. troops against Afghan civilians.

Washington says they need Karzai to sign the agreement soon because it takes time for the rotation of combat troops and needs to be planned well in advance. If American troops leave, chaos is expected to ensue.

Recently al-Qaeda recaptured “Fallujah, site of the Iraq War’s bloodiest battles,” according to the Washington Times. One-third of the 4,474 U.S. combat fatalities in Iraq occurred in Fallujah. The same fate could befall Afghanistan should all U.S. troops withdraw, where the Taliban, the Haqqani Network and al-Qaeda are waiting to fill the power vacuum that would result.

The Haqqani Network is linked to al-Qaeda and based in Pakistan. They are part criminal enterprise and part terrorist organization. The Taliban is an Afghan nationalist movement that seeks to regain control of politics of Afghanistan. The Taliban would gain the most from an American withdrawal and is expected to possibly recapture villages south of Kandahar, the place of their spiritual birth.

Said former intelligence operative Wayne Simmons:

The blueprint is clear. The only difference is that Afghanistan, with the exception of Kabul, has no  infrastructure so it will fall faster and result in more personal pain and  suffering. Once again, our blood and treasure.

Retired Army Gen. John Keane, an architect of the 2007 troop surge in Iraq, believes if we abandon Afghanistan, as we have  seemingly done in Iraq, it will only serve to embolden the Taliban and their allies to reassert themselves in the south. If our troops leave, the Afghans would lose American might and know-how.

They would also lose the “intricate intelligence network” that has been established by our troops. This network has identified numerous Taliban fighters and bomb-making sites. It would also mean many American lives were lost in Afghanistan for nothing; their sacrifices would have been in vain.


Joseph L. Parker

Joseph L. Parker

Joseph L. Parker has written for Conservative Firing Line, the magazine Grace and Mercy, and has published over 550 articles for the Examiner.

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