By Mary Rooke
New polling underscores potential Republican momentum in an open-seat contest to replace term-limited Democratic New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy.
The New Jersey gubernatorial election poll published Oct. 28 by Quantus Insights shows Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 3 points (49-46%) among likely voters. it carries significant weight given the state’s notable shift to the right in the 2024 presidential election. Sherrill’s lead over Ciattarelli is within the margin of error, making the race far from over.
New Jersey has historically been a reliable Democratic stronghold. Former President Joe Biden beat President Donald Trump by about 16 points in 2020. However, Trump was just 6 points shy of flipping New Jersey red during his 2024 race against former Vice President Kamala Harris. The dramatic shift in November, coupled with Ciattarelli’s narrow 3-point loss to Murphy in 2021, means the Republican candidate has a strong chance. (Sign up for Mary Rooke’s weekly newsletter here!)
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL: New Jersey Governor 2025 | Sherrill +3 Over Ciattarelli | N=1,380 LVs | MoE ±2.6%
Governor (with leaners)
🔵 Mikie Sherrill: 49.2%
🔴 Jack Ciattarelli: 45.9%
⬜️ Other: 2.6%
⬛️ Undecided: 2.4%
–––––––––––––––––––
Leaners Only
🔵 Sherrill: 31%
🔴… pic.twitter.com/MM5CvdXgkY— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 28, 2025
While Sherrill is expected to dominate Ciatterelli among mail-in ballot voters, only 20 percent of voters told Quantus Insights that they plan to use this method. Meanwhile, 49 percent of likely New Jersey voters say they plan to cast their ballot in person on Election Day. Among that cohort, Ciattarelli leads Sherrill by 21 points.
Despite Sherrill’s 3-point lead overall, 53 percent of voters believe their neighbors support Ciattarelli. In years past, this typically indicated the possibility that there was understated Republican enthusiasm, sometimes referred to as the shy Trump vote. These voters are less likely to admit to pollsters that they are voting for the Republican candidate, fearing that others might find out, but ultimately choose them when casting their ballots. (ROOKE: Democrats Went All In On Massive Political Gamble That Even CNN Thinks They Are Losing)
The last time a Republican won a gubernatorial election in New Jersey was in 2013, when Chris Christie was elected. If Ciattarelli is victorious, it could reshape policy on taxes, education, and housing in a high-cost state, while emboldening Republicans nationally in blue-leaning areas, ensuring that Trump’s 2024 red wave wasn’t a one-off election.
