“Off-cycle elections are not an accident of scheduling—local governments routinely choose to put major spending decisions up for a vote when they know most people aren’t paying attention, amplifying the influence of public sector unions and other special interests. This is a nationwide problem, and a new Goldwater Institute report makes the case for reform.”
In “Off-Cycle Voting in Arizona: Economic and Democratic Costs?,” political economist and Arizona State University Associate Professor Henry Thomson, Ph.D., exposes how off-cycle elections are costing Arizonans billions while weakening democracy. Recent off-cycle municipal elections in Arizona averaged 26.9% turnout, more than 44 percentage points lower than comparable on-cycle elections—November elections on even-numbered years. The result: a less representative electorate that is …. more closely aligned with groups that benefit from growing government spending.”
Conservatives used to turn out at higher rates than liberals in off-cycle elections and non-presidential elections. But that’s not true anymore. Now, progressives turn out at higher rates than conservatives in off-cycle elections. Low voter turnout helps Democrats. If voter turnout had been lower in 2024, Kamala Harris would have defeated Donald Trump.
Democrats do better in special elections than general elections and better in off-year elections than presidential elections. As the Marquette Law School faculty blog explains,
The two parties have flipped in their relationship to voter turnout. Now, it seems, Democrats are strongest in lower-turnout elections and Republicans do best when turnout is highest…
Something fundamental changed in the years following Trump’s first election. Now, the smaller the electorate in Milwaukee, the more liberal it seems to be….
This is a real paradigm shift from not too long ago. During the Obama years, Democrats enjoyed a clear majority among potential voters broadly defined, but this majority depended on the adults least likely to participate. Republicans, on the other hand, had great strength with the most regular voters. For this reason, Obama could handily win Wisconsin (and the nation) in 2008 and 2012, but the Republican Tea Party wave dominated in 2010….[But now] the people most likely to show up in an April election are older, highly educated, and more wealthy. These demographics used to lean Republican; now they lean Democratic.
