Weather forecasting has improved enormously in the last 30 years. Four-day forecasts are now as accurate as one-day forecasts were in the early 1990s. It is now much easier to avoid being killed by a hurricane, because forecasters are better at predicting the path and the intensity of hurricanes.
Ancient peoples tried to predict the weather. 2700 years ago, the Babylonians would make predictions based on cloud patterns and movements. Often, their predictions were wrong. Around 2400 years ago, Aristotle wrote Meteorologica, making assertions about how rain, hail, hurricanes, and lightning formed. Much of his speculation turned out to be wrong.
In 1859, England’s Meteorological Service (the Met Office) issued its first weather forecast for shipping. In 1861, it issued its first public weather forecast. While meteorological measurements improved over time, the transformative improvement in predictions came with the use of computerized numerical modeling. That didn’t happen until the 1960s. As a web site notes,
Forecasts have improved a lot since then. We can see this across a range of measurements, and different national meteorological organizations.
Predictions have gotten much better in the United States, too. We can see this in some of the most important forecasts: the prediction of hurricanes.
The National Hurricane Center publishes data on the “track error” of hurricanes and cyclones — the error in where the hurricane hits…We can see that this track error — especially for longer-term forecasts — has decreased a lot over time. In the 1970s, a 48-hour forecast had an error between 200 and 400 nautical miles; today this is around 50 nautical miles. The 72-hour error in the 1960s and 70s was over 400 nautical miles. Today, it’s less than 80 miles.
Meteorologists can now make pretty accurate predictions of where a hurricane will hit three or four days in advance, which lets cities and communities prepare while preventing unnecessary evacuations that might have been implemented in the past.
