America’s murder rate has risen a lot since 2014 (the Ferguson Effect) and also has risen since 2019 (murder spiked after the George Floyd riots and related depolicing). In most of the world, the murder rate has fallen during that period (including during the pandemic). But the U.S. homicide rate has risen a lot since 2014, when it was only 4.4 per 100,000, increasing to 5.1 per 100,000 in 2019, and 6.3 per 100,000 in 2022.
In Italy, the murder rate has fallen enormously since the 1990s, aided by the country’s strong family values and mentally well-adjusted population (Italy has fewer psychiatrists and mental health staff per capita than countries like England, France, and Germany, reflecting fewer people with psychological maladies). Italy also has fewer heavy drinkers than all nearby countries, even predominantly Muslim Albania.
Italy may be the land that launched Cosa Nostra, but today it is one of the safest countries in Europe, with a murder rate well below its neighbours.
From the mid-19th century through to the 1990s, thousands of people died in mafia violence, from rivals or traitors cast in cement or fed to pigs, to judges, priests and witnesses killed for daring to defy the mob. There were also the traumatic “Years of Lead” from the end of the 1960s to the 1980s, when armed groups from the extreme left and extreme right brought terror to Italy with bombings and assassinations….But when this bloody period ended, and after a crackdown on mafias which pushed them into less violent financial crime, the murder rate plummeted.
Back in 1990, there were 34 murders per one million inhabitants in Italy, compared to 24 in neighbouring France, according to UN figures.
In 2021-22, this had fallen to 5.5 per million in Italy and 11 in France, eight in Germany and 10 in the UK.
In Europe, only Norway and Switzerland have a murder rate lower or equal to Italy’s…Just 10 percent of murders each year are now blamed on organised crime.
“The mafias — the Camorra, the ‘Ndrangheta, the Cosa Nostra — have radically changed their way of operating,” said Gianluca Arrighi, a criminal lawyer who writes police novels.
“Today, they operate from a more economic point of view, buying up real estate, entering into companies,” he said….Arrighi believes several factors are at play.
While Italy is poorer than its comparable EU neighbours, he says this is not always detrimental to social well-being, saying “goodwill” between people can help compensate for life’s difficulties.
“The higher the conflict in a society, the higher the number of murders, committed by people who are in some state of anger,” Arrighi told AFP.
The murder rate is, however, higher in the south of Italy…Stefano Delfini, head of criminal analysis at the government’s department of public security, agrees that “our society is less violent”. “The social fabric is more resistant, probably because of the presence of family values which mean difficulties are felt in a less harsh way.”
Another factor that drives violence in other countries is alcohol or drug use, particularly in France and the UK.
Italy does not keep data on this, but consumption of alcohol is the lowest in the EU, according to the World Health Organization.
Homicide rates fell in many countries, such as Italy, France, and Japan, in 2020, the year the coronavirus pandemic hit, even though they suffered more economically from the pandemic, and experienced sharper recessions than the U.S. did. By contrast, the homicide rate spiked in the U.S. in 2020. The relatively high U.S. crime rate is partly due to its weak family structure and high rate of single-parent households. As the Manhattan Institute notes, “The social science correlating fatherlessness with criminal behavior is overwhelming. A famous study conducted on juvenile delinquency in 2002 at UC–Santa Barbara concluded that ‘the most critical factor affecting the prospect that a male youth will encounter the criminal justice system is the presence of his father in the home.’”
Homicide is not the only area where other countries have diverged from the U.S.
Road deaths spiked in the U.S. after the death of George Floyd, as police pulled back from police stops of motorists (especially black motorists), leading to big increases in reckless driving and crashes, especially among black motorists. But in the rest of the world, it was a different story, with a steady fall in road deaths in every year since 2010:
The annual number of road traffic deaths fell slightly to 1.19 million per year, according to the latest WHO report. Yet with more than 2 deaths occurring per minute and over 3200 per day, road traffic crashes remain the leading killer of children and youth aged 5–29 years.
The latest WHO global status report on road safety 2023 shows that, since 2010, road traffic deaths have fallen by 5% to 1.19 million annually…Among UN Member States, 108 countries reported a drop in road traffic-related deaths between 2010 and 2021. Ten countries succeeded in reducing road traffic deaths by over 50%: Belarus, Brunei Darussalam, Denmark, Japan, Lithuania, Norway, Russian Federation, Trinidad and Tobago, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Thirty-five more countries made notable progress, reducing deaths by 30% to 50%.
The report shows that 28% of global road traffic deaths occurred in the WHO South-East Asia Region, 25% in the Western Pacific Region, 19% in the African Region, 12% in the Region of the Americas, 11% in the Eastern Mediterranean Region and 5% in the European Region.
Nine in 10 deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries, and fatalities in these countries are disproportionately higher when set against the number of vehicles and roads they have. The risk of death is 3 times higher in low-income than high-income countries, yet low-income countries have just 1% of the world’s motor vehicles.
Fifty-three per cent of all road traffic fatalities are vulnerable road users including: pedestrians (23%); riders of powered two- and three-wheelers such as motorcycles (21%); cyclists (6%); and users of micro-mobility devices such as e-scooters (3%). Deaths among car and other 4-wheeled light vehicle occupants fell slightly to 30% of global fatalities….
Pedestrian deaths rose 3% to 274 000 between 2010 and 2021, accounting for 23% of global fatalities. Deaths among cyclists rose by nearly 20% to 71 000, accounting for 6% of global deaths. Meanwhile, research indicates that 80% of the world’s roads fail to meet pedestrian safety standards and just 0.2% have cycle lanes, leaving these road users dangerously exposed. And while 9 in 10 people surveyed identify as pedestrians, just a quarter of countries have policies to promote walking, cycling and public transport.
In the U.S., in contrast, the motor vehicle fatality rate went up 7.1% in 2020, and 10.5% in 2021, before falling 0.3% in 2022, according to Wikipedia. There were 3,230 fatalities in 2021, compared to only 2,967 fatalities in 2010. Road deaths have increased both as an absolute number and as a fraction of America’s population since 2019, and — to a lesser extent — since 2010.
As the progressive website Vox noted about the recent increase in U.S. traffic deaths:
According to a 2021 survey of over 1,000 police officers, nearly 60 percent said they were less likely to stop a vehicle for violating traffic laws than they were prior to 2020, when the murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police inspired nationwide protests……traffic stops are decreasing while deaths are rising….Some experts…think there’s an obvious link. Enforcement efforts that are high-visibility and focused on safety are shown to reduce risky driving.
