Raise your hand if you are dreading 2024.
Keep it up if you believe it will be more traumatic than 2023.
As I was writing this piece, the news broke that the Colorado Supreme Court had ruled former President Trump is ineligible to appear on the 2024 presidential ballot, citing the Constitution’s 14th Amendment insurrection clause.
This unprecedented ruling, likely headed to the Supreme Court, illustrates how alarming, destructive, distressing events and circumstances from 2023 will continue unabated or conclude with more polarizing or dangerous consequences. Thus, 2024 could rank among the most harrowing and catastrophic in national and world history based on the following 11 “what if” questions.
1. What if a barrage of AI-generated content and social media from domestic and foreign players blur presidential campaign messaging, so that voters don’t know what is real or fake?
In April, a member of Congress stated that Russia, China and Iran prefer Trump to win over President Biden. If true, consider a chilling report from the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center, entitled “Protecting Election 2024 from foreign malign influence.” Microsoft warns that a vast operation will target and manipulate voters through extensive foreign AI, cyber, website disinformation and social media. Be aware: A toxic stew of nefarious foreign players will try to influence your vote.
2. What if House Republicans vote to impeach President Biden?
Last week’s party-line vote approved an impeachment inquiry against President Biden. By spring, if House Speaker Johnson counts enough Republican votes to pass articles of impeachment, our nation will experience its first back-to-back impeachments against successive presidents.
Democrats consider this GOP impeachment effort political theatre directed by Donald Trump. Therefore, Biden could have a unique opportunity to show strength, fight back and appeal to voters who think he is too old. And like Trump, Biden could count on an acquittal after his Senate trial.
Furthermore, what if House GOP leaders find insufficient evidence to move forward with articles of impeachment or are short of votes to impeach? Call that a politically embarrassing debacle, perhaps followed by a face-saving “Let the voters decide.” Such a pro-democracy-sounding spin message could be the end-game for this “revenge impeachment.” Undoubtedly, Trump would be furious if Biden were not impeached and lash out at the “weak” House leadership.
3. What if Biden drops out?
That unlikely but not implausible scenario would be the political equivalent of a nuclear bomb, changing the course of American history. Vice President Kamala Harris would be tough to dethrone, but unpopular and potentially beatable by Trump.
4. What if the Supreme Court rules that Trump has presidential immunity and can not stand trial on Jan. 6-related charges?
Such a ruling would be a constitutional shock to our nation and damaging to the Supreme Court’s reputation. According to George Washington University law professor Paul Schiff Berman, granting Trump immunity for criminal action while in office “goes more to the heart of whether the president is a president or a king.”
In 2024, there is no “what if,” only a series of how Trump-related Supreme Court rulings will impact and influence the presidential election.
5. What if Trump is convicted of a felony before November’s election, and polls show he still defeats Biden?
Fortunately for Trump, the Constitution does not state that a criminal conviction makes one ineligible to hold the nation’s highest office. Therefore, again, “Let the voters decide” resolves that question.
6. What if the economy keeps improving and growing with a strong stock market while inflation, interest rates and unemployment all trend lower?
Would a strong economy translate into higher job approval for President Biden? Not necessarily. If the cost of living is still perceived as too high and the southern border immigration crisis is uncontrollable, Biden could well become a one-term president even amid a recovery.
Recently, Trump unveiled his new campaign slogan: “Better Off With Trump.” It is a personal and narcissistic twist on the traditional presidential election question: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” Theoretically, the answer should be “yes,” since the pandemic began in 2020. Nonetheless, Trump’s communication machine and savvy showmanship skills are light years beyond Biden’s, and more voters will be thinking “No.”
7. What if Trump’s campaign rhetoric continues to sound authoritarian as he leads Biden in the polls?
The more Trump quotes his favorite dictators, the more his unorthodox speech becomes normalized and acceptable to voters. At last weekend’s New Hampshire rally, Trump unabashedly said: “Even Vladimir Putin says that Biden’s — and this is a quote — ‘politically motivated persecution of his political rival is very good for Russia, because it shows the rottenness of the American political system, which cannot pretend to teach others about democracy.’”
Trump is brilliantly employing political jujutsu with all-caps campaign signs proclaiming that “BIDEN ATTACKS DEMOCRACY.” Voters cheer because Trump is their strong man who promises, “We’re going to bring our country back from hell. It’s in hell.”
8. What if the U.S. is drawn into a Middle East war against Iran-backed groups that continue to provoke U.S. naval ships and disrupt international commercial shipping?
Speaking of hell… The Houthis are warning that their attacks will continue. How will the U.S. and its allies stop this naval and merchant ship crisis without further escalation?
9. What if, without U.S. aid, Ukraine falls to Russia?
Putin’s mission is to reconstitute the Soviet empire. If the U.S. abandons Ukraine, we will pay more later and show the world that the U.S. is an unreliable ally.
10. What if war explodes on three fronts?
What if China takes advantage of the distractions in the Middle East and Ukraine to invade Taiwan? Chinese President Xi recently warned Biden that timing is the only question.
11. What if there is a terrorist attack in the U.S., and the perpetrators(s) enter over the southern border?
According to the U.S. Border Patrol Terrorist Screening Dataset, this is an increasing threat. Should it happen, say hello to President Donald J. Trump. But no worries, He will only be a “dictator on day one.”
Potentially, 2024 will rival the domestic upheaval of 1968 and the international threats of 1939. Brace yourself for double chaos.
Myra Adams served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.
Cross-posted at The Hill and Substack.
