When Capitol building cleaning crews were removing feces from the hallowed halls of Congress after the riot of Jan. 6, 2021, no one imagined that Donald Trump would be leading the 2024 Republican presidential primary field by a 48-point margin just three years later.
Two overarching reasons help explain this unusual circumstance.
First, his “Make America Great Again” base is immovable. Trump knew that already on Jan. 23, 2016, when at a rally in Iowa, he famously stated, “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters. Okay?” This is, for example, why Trump can be so comfortable with careless conversations about the executive orders he wants to sign at the beginning of his second term, telling Sean Hannity that he would not be a dictator, “other than day one.”
Second, May poll data found that six out of ten Republicans still think the 2020 election was illegitimate. No wonder, since at his Iowa rally last Saturday, Trump repeatedly told the crowd that Democrats “rigged and stole the 2020 election.”
This delusion has poisoned Trump voters’ minds in seven distinct ways.
1. Deceptive Rationalization
Whatever Trump says or does — no matter the evidence to the contrary — loyal followers normalize, downplay, excuse, and rationalize his behaviors, speech, and legal issues. Indeed, any of dozens of instances of his controversial behavior would have doomed any traditional presidential candidate before June 2015, when he first descended the Trump Tower escalator.
No “traditional” presidential candidate could have survived two impeachments, indictments on 91 felony counts, and numerous investigations without the magic spell of deceptive rationalization. That is the superstructure reinforcing Trump’s movement.
Among my Trump-loyal friends, I often hear rationalizations such as, “I don’t like his personality, but I like his policies,” and “Our nation was stronger when he was president.”
When I ask, “What about Jan. 6, 2021?” the answer is, “That was overblown.” I say, “What about his trying to overturn the Constitution to stay in power?” The retort is, “It was justified, since the election was stolen.” Finally, I ask, “How about all his indictments?” Answer: “It is a Democrat scam to keep him from winning in 2024.”
Deceptive rationalization is the unbreakable feedback loop between Trump and his followers. Trump is perpetually the innocent victim who cannot lose or fail, and the star who always rises, vowing to undo any wrongs, improve your life, and strengthen the nation.
2. Respect for the strong-man image
American masculinity is under attack. Trump appeals to the MAGA mindset by exemplifying the 20th-century fighting persona of great American manhood. To his fans, he is John Wayne or Rocky Balboa, someone who takes no crap and fights to the end. A Trump voter told me, “Only Trump has the courage to stand up to his enemies. He is not bought or owned by lobbyists. He can be trusted to do what is best for America.”
In the mind of MAGA voters, the 2024 election might be characterized as “Trump is strong, and Biden is weak.” And Trump’s “dictator” remark only solidifies this popular strongman image.
3. Biden is much worse than Trump
When I discussed Trump’s dictatorial language with Trump-voting friends, one said, “Biden is not an option.” Another remarked, “I’ll take Trump any day over Biden. He is better than what we have now.”
The right-leaning media echo chamber has made Trump a respectable alternative to Biden. Furthermore, Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting in 2024, so Trump can undo the damage Biden has done. Trump equals hope for America. Biden means disaster.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) piled on last Sunday, stating that if Biden is reelected, “then we won’t recognize America and the world will be truly on fire.”
4. Whataboutism
Comparing Trump to Biden and his son Hunter is a favorite MAGA mind game. For every controversial Trump action, there is a Biden equivalent that evens the playing field. Trump and his voters believe Biden has weaponized the government, most notably the Justice Department.
On Tuesday, when Hannity asked Trump if he would “use the government to go after people,” Trump retorted, “You mean like they’re using right now?” He thus expertly applied his “whataboutism” skill to justify his authoritarian-sounding second-term proposals as a means to saving America and democracy.
This is not accidental. At his recent Iowa rally, Trump said, “Joe Biden is the destroyer of American democracy,” and Trump’s campaign distributed all-caps signs reading, “BIDEN ATTACKS DEMOCRACY.” The 2024 “whataboutism” battle is intentional, and it will be fierce.
5. Rural/blue-collar America gives its middle finger to governmental authority
For Trump’s supporters, he personifies turning the tables on authority with a “stick it to the boss” mentality. Ironically, Trump vows to replace authority with more authority, loyal only to him.
6. Trump represents an America First policy agenda that gets things done.
In Iowa last week, as before, Trump bragged, “I kept Israel safe. I kept Ukraine safe. None of this stuff would have happened. And I kept the entire world safe….And as the 47th president…we will do it again.” And the crowds cheer wildly.
7. Us-versus-Them mentality
“We pledge to you that we will root out the communists, Marxists, fascists, and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country, that lie and steal and cheat on elections,” Trump said on Nov. 11 in New Hampshire.
A Trump-loyal friend emailed, “I have heard many times on Fox that Washington is portraying Trump as a Hitler. No one is listening to reporters.”
Are MAGA voters deaf to Trump’s own words?
Presumably, any non-Trump voter could be included in the “them” whom Trump described on Nov.11. Still, his followers believe the “Trump is a dictator talk” to be “patently absurd,” perpetrated by a liberal media freaking out over Trump potentially returning to power. Given the extreme us-versus-them polarization, it is doubtful that Trump’s “dictator” remarks will change any votes.
My safe 2024 prediction: The losing party will believe it is “the end of America.”
Myra Adams served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.
Cross-posted at The Hill and Substack.
