Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has a reality problem. He is gaining momentum among influential Republicans desperate for a second fresh face who can stop former President Donald Trump from winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination — and, according to conventional wisdom, his inevitable defeat in the general election.
But what happened to the first fresh face — that of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)? If polls are correct, DeSantis’s face has been bloodied. He is now disparagingly compared to former Wisconsin GOP governor Scott Walker (R). In early 2015, Walker had quickly led the 2016 primary pack before rapidly descending and dropping out in September 2015. Now it appears that DeSantis is imitating Walker’s death spiral. By September, a political Category 5 hurricane could demolish his weak, cash-starved campaign.
If DeSantis were to fold this year, then what I initially referred to as Youngkin’s “reality problem” could be compounded. When Douglas Schoen asks whether Glenn Youngkin is “the dark horse of 2024,” I answer “no.” The Youngkin fantasy will saddle up for a brief wild ride, but only until Team Trump breaks its muscular legs. Why should Youngkin take the risk of tarnishing an otherwise promising political future?
At age 56, Youngkin is a Harvard MBA — smart, attractive, 6’ 5” tall, wealthy, politically savvy, well-spoken and popular. He has a 57 percent job approval rating, with 32 percent disapproving. Before entering politics, Youngkin was CEO of Carlyle Group, a powerhouse global investment firm.
The governor’s mansion was Youngkin’s first attempt at public office. In 2021, as a moderate, no-drama conservative with a strong education message, he defeated former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) in a surprise upset. Youngkin received national attention and notoriety for, among other things, not campaigning with former President Trump.
Youngkin has impressed the not-easy-to-impress Mark McKinnon, the last media strategist to reelect a Republican president. His credentials include former adviser to former President George W. Bush and John McCain and creator/executive producer of Showtime’s “The Circus.”
When I asked McKinnon about Youngkin 2024, he said: “If I were in the White House, the guy who would worry me most is Youngkin. He’s sunny like Reagan. Compassionate like Bush. Unlike DeSantis, he’s a happy warrior and resembles a human.”
Indeed, Youngkin “resembles a human,” a humble Christian human who calls on God and in 2021 publicly stated, “I asked Him every day for help, and I continue to ask Him every day for help.”
All the 2024 fantasy thinkers like how Youngkin is the polar opposite of Donald Trump. The governor is a leader who acts like an adult and plays by the rules — very human behavior.
Youngkin’s style and political operations are meeting success. The governor’s 10 endorsed candidates won in June’s primary election for state legislature races. Their success in this year’s election could be pivotal for his overall legacy as governor.
And here is a very sharp double-edged sword. Youngkin has a considerable stake in November’s 2023 election. Even if he is tempted to become the “dark horse of 2024,” he cannot just launch a presidential campaign before the Nov. 7 election. And one cannot build a presidential campaign starting in November when the Iowa caucuses are on Jan. 15.
Still, even that herculean logistical challenge is not Youngkin’s biggest problem. His biggest problem is Trump, whose 50 percent support from GOP primary voters is greater than that of all nine rivals combined.
Amazingly, Trump’s primary strength grows with each indictment or threat of more. The former president masterfully plays both the “victim” and “rockstar” cards. His MAGA branding holds that “they are coming after me, which means they are coming after you,” and he breaks every political rule and defies all predictions of his demise.
Although Youngkin checks every box that traditionally appeals to GOP primary voters, he would be foolish to heed the Republican influencers invading Richmond and compete in the “Trumplican Party” of 2024.
Youngkin’s most talented campaign associates, Jeff Roe and Kristin Davison, who helped elect him in 2021, now lead DeSantis’s cash-rich “Never Back Down” PAC. It is therefore unlikely that Youngkin would enter the primary without their help. Still, Roe and Davison might be available if DeSantis fails to turn his campaign around.
And don’t forget Youngkin’s other major obstacle: his day job. He took office on January 15, 2022, and his single term (Virginia governors cannot be re-elected to consecutive terms) ends in January 2026.
So if Youngkin launches a presidential campaign, he would essentially abandon his office halfway through his only term. Alternatively, when he vacates in January 2026, Youngkin could find himself a major player in the 2026 midterms, collecting IOUs for 2028. He need only keep himself relevant and newsworthy.
Youngkin has certainly signaled his desire to be president. In May, he launched an aspirational video that had tongues wagging with its heavy Reaganesque-wannabe overtones, prompting The Hill’s headline: “Youngkin fuels 2024 speculation with campaign-style video.”
One week later, DeSantis launched his long-awaited presidential campaign, and the “one fresh-faced governor at a time” rule kicked in.
In a sane Republican world, Youngkin would be a top prospect to win the White House. However, 2024 is insane, and any talk of Youngkin entering and winning the nomination is a delusional “stop Trump” fantasy.
Myra Adams writes about politics and religion. She served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.
Cross-posted at The Hill and Substack.
