There are lots of very close Senate and congressional races this year, but in the presidential race, Joe Biden has maintained a steady lead over Donald Trump. Biden leads Trump nationally by 12% according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. Biden leads in six 2020 swing states according to CNBC polls that found Trump got no lasting bounce from the Republican National Convention. Recent CBS polls show Biden ahead by 10% nationally and 6% in swing states.
As political analyst Harry Enten notes, “Biden’s 10 point and 6 point advantages are the exact same they were when CBS News/YouGov polled the contests before the party conventions. The polls are reflective of a race that barely budges even after two conventions, protests and unrest in some cities.”
Biden’s lead is more likely to persist than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016 because there are fewer undecided voters and fewer voters supporting third parties, who sometimes switch their vote to a major party candidate on election day.
An NBC poll shows Biden leads by 9% in the pivotal state of Pennsylvania, whose switch to the GOP did the most to put Trump in the White House in 2016.
Conservative blogs cherry-pick polls that show Trump winning in this or that state or that show a fairly small national lead for Biden. But the overall polling average shows a stable Biden lead, even as it shows that many congressional races are too close to call.
Conservatives should put more money and effort into trying to hold the Senate, and win Senate races. That’s because the Democrats are likely to abolish the filibuster if they take over the Senate. After they do that, they will radically transform society by passing left-wing legislation that fundamentally reshapes our economy, restricts free speech and religious freedom, spawns violent crime, and restricts access to reliable energy. Joe Biden will not veto that legislation because he has a long record of taking whatever position Democrats in Congress want. When it comes to his own party, he is a go-along-to-get-along guy.
And the Democrats have become much more left-wing over the last few years, as progressive publications like Vox and the Los Angeles Times have noted. Joe Biden signed off on a 2020 Democratic platform that included radical ideas once supported only by some in the Sanders wing of the Democratic Party.