Political statistician Nate Silver officially projected that Republican nominee Donald Trump will win the highly influential swing state of Florida, according to an analysis published Sunday.
Trump has a 51.5% chance of winning Florida, compared to only a 48.5% chance for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the forecast published on Silver’s website FiveThirtyEight. (The website’s name derives from the total number of electoral votes from all 50 states combined.)
Trump has made incredible progress campaigning in the Sunshine Sstate, coming up from a 22% chance as of Oct. 15. Clinton has fallen from a 78% chance of winning the state since Oct. 15.
Trump has been doing much better in the polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s adjusted poll totals. The last two polls included in the analysis show the two candidates tied in the race, with Trump earning as much as a seven-point lead in a series of polls published last week.
Silver’s adjusted polling average show Trump with 45.7%, compared to Clinton’s 45.4%. It is still a tight race, but Silver projects voter turnout will make all the difference. The statistician says that among those who vote in the state on Tuesday, 48.1% will vote for Trump, and 47.8% will choose Clinton.
Clinton earned a 5% lead in the ABC daily tracking poll published Sunday, and a four-point lead in the NBC daily tracking poll, according to Real Clear Politics.
This report, by Phillip Stucky, was cross-posted by arrangement with the Daily Caller News Foundation.