The primary season takes another interesting turn, as Ted Cruz wins big in Wisconsin.
With 75% of the vote tallied, Cruz is still at just under 50%, and Trump is well behind at 34%. This being Wisconsin, and Kasich being Kasich, it’s not certain what the distribution would look like if he weren’t still in it, siphoning off some 14% of the votes as of 10 PM Central (11 PM Eastern). But the most likely question is whether Cruz’s portion would be a whole lot more than 50%, or only a little.
The delegate grab isn’t massive for Cruz: 24 locked in, on the Wisconsin winner-take-all basis; most of an additional 18 at large.
But his strong showing in the vote is a major boost to his campaign, as the primaries head to states where Trump is expected to have a natural advantage (and Kasich will be in his element as well). New York is coming up on 19 April, and 26 April will see a mini-Super with Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. All things being equal, Cruz would not expect to get his best results in those East coast enclaves.
But all things haven’t been equal since this whole thing started long ago in a galaxy far, far away. A month ago, Cruz wasn’t predicted to cruise in Wisconsin, and here he is. The moral of the story seems to be: stay tuned. Karl Rove can relax. The fat lady ain’t sung yet.
On the Democratic side, Sanders’s lead over Clinton has remained significant all night, and with 75% of the vote in, he’s at 56-odd %. The comparison between his vote total — over 460,000 at this point — and Cruz’s at 440,000-some is quite interesting. Makes you wonder what exactly is in the water up there: a whole bunch of people are misguided enough to vote for the socialist Sanders, and in the same state, almost as many voted for a classically-principled, limited-government conservative.
It isn’t time yet to pronounce Trump DOA. Just trying to keep things honest here. Let’s not kid ourselves. But he will need a thumping win in New York to regain momentum. New York awards delegates proportionally, and Trump is unlikely to run away with it.
A couple of graphics to muse on.