“Russia accounts for just 2 percent of global GDP, roughly equivalent to New York state’s contribution in 1990. As we approach the fourth year of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, AEI’s Danielle Pletka and Marc A. Thiessen examine the ailing state of Russia’s economy and what failure in Ukraine would cost the country.”
“Big Costs, Little Reward: Russia’s government is spending four out of every 10 rubles on the war in Ukraine and, at its current pace, will deplete the country’s cash reserves by 2030. Despite this massive outlay, Russia has netted just 7 percent of Ukrainian territory.”
“Economic Divergence: Moscow’s economic struggles stand in stark contrast to the condition of former Soviet states that joined the European Union. These EU countries have seen a tenfold average increase in GDP since 1990. By contrast, Russia and its non-EU neighbors have expanded just fourfold. Today, the combined GDP of the newer EU member states stands at $2.4 trillion—surpassing Russia’s $2 trillion economy,” notes the American Enterprise Institute.
The Russia-Ukraine war has damaged grain production, primarily in Ukraine. But despite that, global grain production is reaching an all-time high.
“Supporting Ukraine is in the direct economic interest of the United States,” AEI says. “The economic well-being of the United States is tied directly to global security—and containing Vladimir Putin’s revanchist regime.”
Sending aid to Ukraine has enabled it to weaken Russia’s ability to make war and attack our NATO allies. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that “The U.S. navy isn’t prepared to face Russia’s navy.” But as columnist Noah Smith pointed out, with U.S. aid, “Ukraine destroyed much of Russia’s navy, without even having a navy of their own!” Ukraine has “killed or wounded hundreds of thousands of Russian troops, and destroyed large quantities of equipment.” This has weakened Russia, and made it less of a threat to the United States.
The U.S. has also learned critical things about Russian military weaknesses and valuable lessons about how to defeat Russia on the battlefield from the Ukraine War, lessons that it could not have learned if Ukraine had been swiftly conquered by Russia due to a lack of U.S. aid. The U.S. has derived significant, actionable lessons from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, fundamentally reshaping its approach to future conflict, such as regarding the integration of low-cost, AI-enabled drone technology. The U.S. is learning to leverage faster, cheaper, and more innovative commercial technology (like drone acquisition).
