“Most staple crops are expected to have record-high global harvests this year, thanks to ever-rising crop yields. Meanwhile, wheat, corn, and soybean prices have fallen to levels not seen since 2020,” reports The Doomslayer.
A news site explains:
Most crops, with the exception of sorghum and millet, have seen steady increases over the past 60 years, and that trend is expected to continue this year.
Corn (maize) and wheat, in particular, have seen large increases this year. Soybeans are also expected to see a record. For rice, the rise is very small — basically the same output as last year (which was also a record).
Sorghum and millet — lesser-known but important staple crops in the tropics — continue with their regular pattern, fluctuating up and down without much sustained growth at all. This is concerning for food security, especially across Sub-Saharan Africa.
Grain has grown more plentiful, reports The Economist:
Three years ago, calamity loomed. Russia’s war in Ukraine pitted two big grain exporters against each other. Breadbaskets elsewhere faced brutal droughts. Wheat prices hit records; maize and soybeans also surged. Then, within weeks, they fell, and have carried on sliding since. They are now close to five-year lows.
It is not obvious what prompted traders to go from panicked to placid. As the war in Ukraine continues to rage, the country’s farmers are hurting. Its wheat exports, once the world’s fifth largest, are set to shrink by 25-30% this season. Elsewhere, climate change is damaging output and American tariffs are disrupting trade. Indicators that usually worry investors, such as wheat stocks, have been flashing red for years. Why, then, are markets so calm?
Part of the answer is that global production has been strong. Owing to benign weather, Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, has enjoyed a run of excellent crops. Australia, the second largest, has also posted two whopping recent harvests. Even Europe has outperformed.
There are similar bounties elsewhere. America is due to produce record volumes of maize this season. Brazil, with which it competes to be the top maize exporter, may also hit new highs. That is pushing down the price of other crops used as animal feed, including wheat and soybeans.
