No one ever said democracy is perfect. Majorities can screw up governance almost as easily as can elites.
But still, it was amazing to see Canadians so intimidated by Donald Trump that they utterly ignored the precipitous decline of their own country during the Justin Trudeau years and voted into the Prime Minister’s office Mark “More of the Same” Carney. The Conservative candidate, Pierre Poilievre, was considered a shoo-in after ten years steeped in wokeness, authoritarianism and the outright bizarre. (How many heads of state play dress-up with quite the enthusiasm of Trudeau?) That saw the stagnation of the Canadian GDP, his shut-down of the economy during Covid and his crushing of the truckers’ strike against the backdrop of open disdain for everyday Canadians. By the end, Trudeau’s favorability ratings approached the vanishing point.
But no matter. The very fact of Trump’s existence was all it took for Canadians to ignore the failures and outrages of the Trudeau government; across-the-board national decline was preferable to a Trumpism that, in any case, no one was offering. Trump’s joke about making Canada our 51st state didn’t sit well with Canadian voters, it seems.
But inside the joke was a hard reality, one many Canadians don’t seem to want to acknowledge: as a U.S. state, Canada would be, in many ways, much better off than it is. During the Trudeau years, Canadian GDP stagnated (up an anemic 4.8% in ten years) while that of the U.S. has soared (45.3% in eight years). Meanwhile, 36% of Albertans favor seceding from Canada and joining us as a state.
[Alberta] Premier Danielle Smith announced this week that the oil-rich province could hold its first-ever referendum on independence in 2026, as the area’s pro-51st state activists ramp up calls to ditch the Great White North in favor of the star-spangled banner.
And that sentiment is precisely the result of Trudeau policies – the ones likely to be continued by Carney.
“They’ve blocked new pipelines, cancelled various oil and gas projects and banned the very tanker ships needed to carry these resources to new markets,” Smith said this week in a livestreamed address to Albertans.
In short, there’s a chasm opening between Albertans (plus perhaps the other flyover provinces) and the rest of the country.
What’s even more noteworthy is that the Canadian government itself has issued a report that, between the lines, constitutes a wholesale indictment of the Trudeau regime. It was issued by Policy Horizons Canada that describes itself as “the Government of Canada’s centre of excellence in foresight.” Entitled “Future Lives: Social Mobility in Question,” it predicts conditions in the year 2040. It’s not a pretty picture.
A few of the lowlights:
· Upward social mobility is almost unheard of in Canada. Hardly anyone believes that they can build a better life for themselves, or their children, through their own efforts. However, many worry about sliding down the social order.
· Pursuing post-secondary education (PSE) is no longer considered a reliable path to social mobility. Tuition and housing costs exclude all but the wealthy… Fewer young people choose PSE; those who do, see it less as a path to a successful career than a way to reinforce their membership in the ‘elite’.
· Owning a home is not a realistic goal for many.
· Society increasingly resembles an aristocracy. Wealth and status pass down the generations.
· The Canadian economy could shrink or become less predictable
· People’s mental health may suffer: If people give up on attaining higher standards of living, apathy could spread to other areas of their lives. Frustration could leave many people deeply unhappy, with negative consequences for their family and loved ones.
· More people in Canada, including recent immigrants, may emigrate to jurisdictions where they perceive upward social mobility and/or higher standards of living are easier to attain.
· People may start to hunt, fish, and forage on public lands and waterways without reference to regulations. Small-scale agriculture could increase.
· Governments may come to seem irrelevant if they cannot enforce basic regulations or if people increasingly rely on grass-roots solutions to meeting basic needs.
· People who work hard but see little reward may look for others to blame. Some may blame the state… In extreme cases, people could reject the state’s legitimacy, leading to higher rates of tax evasion or other forms of civil disobedience.
It goes on and on, each entry more depressing than the last.
The year 2040 isn’t far away and of course much of the report is less prediction than simple descriptions of existing realities: 1.8 million Albertans want to join the U.S., home ownership is already out of the question for many, the economy is becalmed, etc. But whatever is actually the case in 15 years, the Canadian government has indicted itself.
But it’s not just the frank admission of a dystopian future that grabs the attention, it’s the report’s passive acceptance of it. The obvious assumption being that governmental power either can’t or won’t be used to better the lives of everyday Canadians.
It’s not as if this report went unnoticed. Poilievre gave a speech specifically quoting passages from it and decrying Trudeau’s policies that brought the country to this pass. To no avail. So horrified were Canadians, not by the report’s admission of the country’s economic, spiritual and psychological malaise or a future without hope, but by Donald Trump and what they consider his – what? poor taste, I suppose – that they endorsed the status quo.
There’s an irony of course. A few more years of a no-growth nanny state, that gets nothing right but its pronouns, will drive ever more voters toward whoever the Canadian Trump turns out to be, much as in the U.K. where “Trump with a pint,” Nigel Farage, is riding a wave of popular support.
This isn’t the last we’ll hear from everyday Canadians who mostly just want part of what the report calls the “Canadian Project,” that “‘following the rules’ and ‘doing the right things’ will lead to a better life. Anyone can get an education, work hard, buy property, and climb the social and economic ladder.” Too bad the Trudeau government made those humblest of aspirations so hard to realize.
Majorities often get it wrong, but one of the beauties of democracy is that there’s always another opportunity to get it right.
This article originally appeared at The Word of Damocles.
