By Melissa O’Rourke
A classified U.S. intelligence assessment concluded that top figures within Nicolás Maduro’s regime would be best positioned to maintain short-term stability in Venezuela in the immediate aftermath of the dictator’s removal, according to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).
The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analysis, which was briefed to President Donald Trump and shared with a small circle of senior administration officials, reportedly shaped Trump’s decision to back Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, rather than opposition leader María Corina Machado as an interim leader, WSJ reported.
“I think it would be very tough for her to be the leader if she doesn’t have the support within, or the respect within the country,” Trump said during a Saturday press conference after U.S. forces captured Maduro to face federal narco-terrorism charges in New York. “She’s a very nice woman, but she doesn’t have the respect.” (RELATED: Venezuelan Oil Could Make America ‘Master Of The Hemisphere’ If Trump’s Domination Continues)
People in Doral, Florida, near Miami, hold a Venezuelan flag with a picture of opposition leader Maria Corina Machado as they react to the U.S. capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, January 3, 2026. (Photo by Georgio Viera / AFP via Getty Images)
Trump concluded that Venezuela’s short-term stability would depend on whether the next leader retained the loyalty of the country’s military and ruling elites, according to people familiar with the intelligence review cited by the outlet.
Senior administration officials commissioned the CIA to analyze day-after scenarios amid internal debates over how Venezuela might be governed if Maduro were removed. While the report did not recommend regime change or speculate on how Maduro might lose power, it evaluated who could maintain order if that outcome occurred, WSJ reported.
The CIA assessment reportedly identified Rodríguez and two other senior regime figures as potential interim leaders capable of preventing a rapid collapse of the government.
Former U.S. and Venezuelan officials told the outlet that Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino are considered the regime’s most influential power brokers. However, both Cabello and Padrino face U.S. criminal charges similar to those filed against Maduro and are widely viewed as hostile to Washington.
By contrast, the intelligence assessment reportedly found that Machado and Edmundo González — who is widely regarded as the true winner of Venezuela’s 2024 election — would struggle to govern in the face of resistance from pro-regime security forces, drug-trafficking networks and political rivals, according to the outlet. The New York Times also reported on the CIA analysis.
Despite Trump’s apparent snub, Machado repeatedly praised the president during a Monday interview with Fox News, even offering Trump the Nobel Peace Prize she was awarded in October.
“Because this is the prize of the Venezuelan people, certainly we want to give it to him and share it with him,” she said.
Machado added, however, that she plans to return to her country “as soon as possible,” and sharply criticized Rodríguez, who was sworn in as interim president early Monday.
“Delcy Rodriguez, as you know, is one of the main architects of torture, persecution, corruption, narco trafficking,” Machado said. “She’s the main ally and liaison with Russia, China, Iran, certainly not an individual that could be trusted by international investors. And she’s really rejected, repudiated by the Venezuelan people.”
Trump, meanwhile, has argued that holding elections in the next month would be unrealistic.
“We have to fix the country first. You can’t have an election. There’s no way the people could even vote,” Trump told NBC News on Monday. “No, it’s going to take a period of time. We have — we have to nurse the country back to health.”
New polling on the arrest shows support for the operation in Venezuela is very high, but tempered by concerns about long-term involvement, and there was relief from some on the right that the move did not take out the entire government in favor of the opposition.
Maduro appeared in federal court in New York City on Monday and pleaded not guilty to charges including narco-terrorism.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Department of War Secretary Pete Hegseth briefed a bipartisan group of lawmakers on Monday. Rubio has suggested the U.S. could pressure Rodríguez by intercepting sanctioned oil shipments, while Trump publicly declared that the U.S. would “run” Venezuela and needs “total access” to the country’s oil reserves.
“As everyone knows the oil business in Venezuela has been a bust, a total bust for a long period of time. They were pumping almost nothing by comparison to what they could have been pumping and what could have taken place,” Trump said Saturday. “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country.”
“President Trump is routinely briefed on domestic political dynamics all over the world,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement to the Daily Caller News Foundation. “The President and his national security team are making realistic decisions to finally ensure Venezuela aligns with the interests of the United States, and becomes a better country for the Venezuelan people.”
The CIA did not immediately respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s requests for comment.
