By Amber Duke
We’re a little over a month out from Virginia’s elections and things are getting interesting…
A new A2 poll of 771 likely voters in Virginia has Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears just three points down against former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger in the commonwealth’s gubernatorial race.
A slightly older co/efficient poll has Sears down six points. OnMessage, a GOP public strategies firm, has the race within five points.
The reality is this is still probably a long shot race for the Republican. Virginia is trending bluer every year and Sears does not have the grassroots organization behind her that Governor Glenn Youngkin had in 2021. The government shutdown is also not likely to help given how many furloughed federal employees live in Northern Virginia (and trust me, they are the “No Kings” wine liberal types, unlikely to blame Democrats for the government being closed).
But there are some positive signs that Sears could overperform. Democrats continue to double down on the insane school transgender policies that in part lost them the 2021 race. Although Spanberger has not had a full-blown foot-in-mouth moment like Democrat Terry McAuliffe did when he said “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach,” her evasive answers on the topic have been dissatisfying, to say the least (she supported federal legislation that would require schools to allow biological males in women’s locker rooms if they identify as female).
Meanwhile, Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun counties have had a series of scandals related to school transgender policies. For one, schools have been found to be openly flouting federal policies warning schools that they would lose federal funding if they allowed boys in girls’ sports, bathrooms, locker rooms, or other private spaces.
Policies allowing boys and men in girls’ spaces have had disastrous consequences in Virginia.
In 2024, a registered sex offender named Richard Cox was caught exposing himself to minor girls at two Virginia public schools and a fitness center. Cox was allowed in the facilities because he told staff he identified as a woman. He has been in court on 20 charges related to indecent exposure in Arlington.
But this wasn’t Cox’s first rodeo. Cox was also a frequent visitor to women’s facilities in several Fairfax County rec centers — he also entered those by claiming he was a woman. Women testified in the Arlington case that they saw Cox masturbating in front of their children. Detectives stated they saw Fairfax County rec center children’s swim class schedules and child sex abuse material on his phone. Yet Fairfax County prosecutor Steve Descano has declined to charge Cox, insisting there is no “probable cause” for his arrest.
Over in Loudoun County, the public school system is punishing two boys who were uncomfortable with a girl who identifies as a boy using their locker rooms. The girl was allegedly filming inside the locker room. Even though the girl violated district policies by filming, the boys were suspended for “sexual harassment and sex-based discrimination.”
Sears has been speaking out on these incidents, and was rewarded at a recent Arlington School Board rally with a white liberal woman holding a sign that said, “Hey Winsome, if trans can’t share your bathroom then blacks can’t share my water fountain.”
The outcry over this and the trans policy is setting up a race with similar conditions to those in 2021 — you can read more about that here from Daily Caller reporter Ashley Brasfield.
There’s also the possibility that the gubernatorial race and attorney general race go in different directions. Republican AG Jason Miyares is running for re-election against Democratic AG candidate Jay Jones. Jones became the subject of his own scandal Wednesday when the Richmond Times-Dispatch reported that he was previously convicted of reckless driving. Jones was driving 116 mph in a 70 mph zone.
Worse than the speeding was how he paid his restitution.
Jones was given 1,000 hours of community service. He spent 500 of those hours with his own political action committee, Meet Our Moment. The other 500 were served with the Virginia NAACP — around that same time, Jones was helping the Virginia NAACP sue Youngkin’s administration, something he has touted on the campaign trail.
OnMessage’s late September poll has the attorney general race tied.
This is one to watch.
WHAT ELSE IS ON MY RADAR
Best shutdown news I’ve received all day!
EXCLUSIVE: Deportation Machine Will Carry On Despite Government Shutdown
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This is a must-read as to why Mikie Sherrill’s involvement in a Naval Academy cheating scandal must be taken seriously:
Mikie Sherrill’s Muddy Response To Resurrected Navy Cheating Scandal A Bad Look
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The UK is in dire straits…
UK ‘Asylum Seeker’ Accused Of Raping 15-Year-Old Girl Schoolgirl, Dubbing Her His ‘Sex Doll’
