Brazil’s homicide rate was 5.4 percent lower in 2024 than it was in 2023—and 25 percent lower than it was in 2012,” reports The Doomslayer.
This isn’t because Brazil has a good criminal justice system. It doesn’t. It still has a murder rate higher than nine-tenths of all countries. More people are murdered every year in Brazil than in any other country (except countries embroiled in unusually bloody civil wars), because Brazil has a large population (212 million) and a high murder rate (19.275 murders annually per 100,000 people, compared to 5.763 murders per 100,000 people in the United States).
But forensics have improved over time, as has trauma care. Improved trauma care means that more shooting victims survive, so even when the number of shootings remains the same, homicides fall.
Moreover, Brazil’s population is aging, and older people commit fewer homicides than young people even in the most violent countries.
As two criminologists explained last year,
enormous advances in emergency medical care since 1960 have dramatically improved the survivability of a shooting or aggravated assault. Victims now arrive at hospitals sooner due to better ambulance and helicopter response times, and most hospitals now have dedicated trauma centers skilled in treating severe wounds. For example, serious gunshot wounds treated in hospitals increased almost 50% between 2001 and 2011 even as the death rate decreased, causing the murder rate to drop from 5.6 to 4.7. Studies show that if 1960s medical technology prevailed today, the murder rate would be more than five times higher than it is. In 2020, 22,000 homicides took place in America. Without modern technologies, this number would be closer to 110,000. America is not in a period of historically low violent crime but rather a period of advanced emergency care saving many victims from death despite steady or increasing severe violence in many jurisdictions.
Le Monde also reports on the falling homicide rate in Brazil: “While Brazil, according to United Nations data, holds the record as the country with the highest number of homicides in the world, a new trend has brought hope for changing this grim statistic. According to a report published on July 24 by the non-governmental organization Brazilian Forum on Public Security (FBSP), homicides have decreased across the country: In 2024, Brazil recorded 44,127 homicides – the lowest number since 2012.”
