Forecast model that has been right in every election since 1988 predicts a Trump victory

Forecast model that has been right in every election since 1988 predicts a Trump victory
Image: Library of Congress

“Extra, extra! Read all about it. Islamophobic, misogynistic racist Donald Trump wins 2016 presidential election.”

That future scenario, announced by an old-timey news boy (who is decidedly anti-Trump), may be in the cards according to a forecasting model that is “always right.”

The Washington Times’s Paul Bedard provides the specifics:

Using several standards to make his prediction, Alan Abramowitz’s “Time for Change” model done for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics “Crystal Ball” shows Trump winning 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent for Hillary Clinton.

Abramowitz, whose model shows a 66% chance of a Trump victory explains:

Based on a predicted vote share of 48.6 percent for the incumbent party, these results indicate that Trump should be a clear but not overwhelming favorite to defeat Clinton: There should be about a 66 percent chance of a Republican victory.

But on the other hand, maybe not. Bedard goes on:

In an unusual move, Abramowitz is throwing his own model under the bus and suggesting that Clinton will win because Trump is so different from past presidential candidates and has such high unfavorability ratings that his election forecast basics can’t be trusted.

Bottom line: If Trump wins (or loses), remember, you saw it here first.

Ben Bowles

Ben Bowles

Ben Bowles is a freelance writer.


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