[Ed. – This comes from the Cook Political Report and is predicated on the control of the statehouse in the affected states; i.e., an assumption that the statehouses remain in Republican hands.]
The final report of the 2020 Census that will be used to redraw lines for congressional districts within 44 states was released by the Census Bureau on Thursday, setting the stage for redistricting battles in state legislatures around the country.
The process of redrawing congressional district boundaries has the potential of changing the majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections from Democrats to Republicans.
Thursday’s report added demographic detail at the census tract level within each state, a more granular analysis than the 2020 Census data released in April, which offered aggregate data at the state level.
“Our current outlook: a GOP gain of 0-7 House seats from redistricting alone, w/ a high initial degree of uncertainty,” Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report tweeted on Thursday just as the new census data was released …