If early return data are correct, Dems should brace themselves for a bad Tuesday

If early return data are correct, Dems should brace themselves for a bad Tuesday
Image via Biden campaign

[Ed. – Dems have also burned through more of their registered voters than have the Republicans.]

On Friday, I posted over at VIP all of the early returns that have come in thus far for all of the battleground states. That data is a combination of voter registration data, ballot data of how many ballots were requested, and commercial data that explains voter behavior. The data has updated since then, but that data was bad news for Democrats Friday, and it was even worse for them by Sunday night.

Democrats really needed to run up the score in early voting in order to overcome the large Trump leaning turn-out expected for Election Day. At this point, in 5 of the 12 Battleground States, Republicans currently lead in early returns, including in Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Short of a massive Dem turnout on Tuesday, those states all fall to Trump. Furthermore, Dems only lead by 1 point in returns in Arizona. …

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