Media push study claiming Trump events have killed hundreds; just a couple of problems

Media push study claiming Trump events have killed hundreds; just a couple of problems
Image: CDC

[Ed. – Although the media reports sound as if thousands of people have tested positive and hundreds have died after attending the rallies, those aren’t empirically documented figures.  They’re predictions from a model.  There is literally no evidence for them.]

The Stanford … study reads, in part:

[…]

We identify a set of counties that are comparable to the event county at the pertinent point in time … We use this relationship to predict the post-event incidence of new confirmed COVID-19 cases for the event county.

[…]

Although our methods involve prediction models, it is important to understand that the nature of these predictions differ in critical ways from the types of predictions generated by epidemiological models.

Trending: Virginia Attorney General’s office: Selective admissions are racist

[…]

In contrast, our approach is to predict outcomes in an event jurisdiction between periods t and t0 based not only on that jurisdiction’s history up until t, but also on the complete histories of comparable counties through period t0. In other words, our predictions employ “future” data for comparable counties, whereas epidemiological models do not.

Oh, and there’s this tiny point, too:

The study has not been peer reviewed yet.

Continue reading →

Comments

For your convenience, you may leave commments below using Disqus. If Disqus is not appearing for you, please disable AdBlock to leave a comment.