[Ed. – A recommended read]
No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio, and only two Democrats have ever won the White House without it — Grover Cleveland and John Kennedy nearly 100 years later.
If Trump is winning here election night by 5 points or more, it might be a surprisingly good night for Republicans in tight races across the country.
If Trump is losing here on election night, Paul Sracic, a political science professor at Youngstown State University, says then the Democrats are heading for a wave election night across the country.
To win, Trump basically has to do well along the two “spines” of Ohio. “On the east side of the state, Trump will need strong numbers from the Pennsylvania and West Virginia lines up through Appalachia and Mahoning, Trumbull, and Ashtabula to Lake Erie,” Sracic said.