Can Trump repeat 2016 win in Pennsylvania? Who votes is key

Can Trump repeat 2016 win in Pennsylvania? Who votes is key

[Ed. – Could this turn out to be a microcosm of many of the battleground states?]

… [A]cademics and strategists on both sides of the aisle are unsure if a repeat of 2016 is in store. The underlying questions are whether pollsters are biased and if we have entered an era, at least with Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, when the norms of data collection are upended by a lack of understanding who is going to vote. In pollsters’ language, the problem is simple: Are they sampling the right voters?

Youngstown State University political science professor Paul Sracic is among those wondering if the models are accurate. Four years ago, he was convinced by the polling data that Trump would lose. Yet he couldn’t shake the anecdotal evidence he saw in the Steel Valley region and the nagging feeling that something different was happening in the famed Democratic “Blue Wall” of Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. His instincts proved … more accurate than the polls.

Continue reading →


For your convenience, you may leave commments below using Disqus. If Disqus is not appearing for you, please disable AdBlock to leave a comment.