[Ed. – Every four years we learn the name of another seer who has correctly predicted the outcome of every election since Abraham Lincoln or some such. Take this forecast in that vein.]
An American University history professor who has predicted nearly every presidential election since 1984 projects former Vice President Joe Biden will best President Trump in the general election.
Historian Allan Lichtman, who wrote a bestselling book in 2017 arguing that Trump be impeached, based his Wednesday analysis on 13 factors. If six or more of the key factors weigh in favor of the challenger, he said the result is a “political earthquake.”
“The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House,” Lichtman said in a New York Times video.
Lichtman calculated his prediction by analyzing whether the incumbent’s political party makes gains in the midterm elections, the president faces a serious primary challenger, the incumbent is seeking reelection, a serious third-party challenger is in the race, and if the president has enacted major policy change to reverse his predecessors.