Case fatality rate for coronavirus so far much lower than early prediction

Case fatality rate for coronavirus so far much lower than early prediction
Image: CDC

[Ed. – As so often in these matters, Trump, for whatever reason, was right.  He bucked the initial projections early on, and at this point seems to have called it pretty well. The figure is probably even lower, considering the evidence that deaths without systemic co-morbidities are being called coronavirus deaths; e.g., gunshot wounds.]

[B]ack in March, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated a 3.4 percent fatality rate and Dr. Anthony Fauci estimated that the fatality rate of the coronavirus was about 2 percent.

President Trump was skeptical of both those numbers, particularly the WHO’s estimate: “Well, I think the 3.4 percent is really a false number,” Trump told Sean Hannity. “Now, and this is just my hunch, and — but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this. Because a lot of people will have this and it’s very mild. They’ll get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor. I think that that number is very high. I think the number, personally, I would say the number is way under 1 percent.” …

According to the CDC’s current best estimate, the case fatality rate of the coronavirus is .4 percent. And that’s just amongst symptomatic cases, which, the CDC estimates, is 65 percent of all cases. This means the CDC estimates that the fatality rate for all infections across all age groups, symptomatic as well as asymptomatic, is approximately .26 percent.

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