[Ed. – For those for whom the glass is half full.]
The ongoing chaotic mismanagement of the coronavirus crisis would seem to jeopardize President Trump’s reelection prospects; however, an analysis of the Electoral College vote puts Trump in a favorable reelection position.
My projection gives Trump 249 and Joe Biden 248 electoral votes. Three states — Arizona (11 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), and Wisconsin (10 Electoral votes) — are toss-up states. Trump won all three in 2016, and he has a good chance to win these states again in 2020.
Several factors work in Trump’s favor. First, former Vice President Joe Biden’s debating and campaigning performances have ranged from inarticulate to incoherent. Also, his expressions and tone of speech focus on the past and do not resonate with younger voters.
Second, despite an endorsement from Bernie Sanders, the especially fervent Sanders supporters will not vote for Biden. They are driven by issues and ideology, not loyalty to Sanders personally.