[Ed. – Hmm. It would have been nice if the scientists could have been a little more accurate before 1 in 4 Americans lost his job or income and the country sank $2 trillion deeper in debt.]
The IHME model, which the White House has been relying on, revised their U.S. coronavirus death projections downward sharply today. While just recently the conventional wisdom was deaths in the ballpark of 100k-200k by August 4th, they’ve been since cut to 60.5k by then. In a best case scenario we’d lose “only” around 30,000, and just over 120,000 in the new worst-case-scenario. In other words, the new worst-case is in the range of the expected amount of deaths according to lats week’s projections.
It is a promising sign for our nation’s health that these revisions continue being made in one direction – downward.
Just the yesterday IHME projected that peak resource use would occur on April 15th, and that 3,130 people would die on the worst single day. The peak has since been moved to April 11th, and the peak isn’t as high, with 2,212 projected to die (30% fewer).