[Ed. – As has been written in this space previously, science does not operate according to ‘consensus view.’ Alternate views from competent thinkers are worth exploring. So why aren’t we hearing about this dissenting views everywhere?]
I offer this not to encourage complacency, of which there’s already been far too much, but as a purgative after feeding you a horse-sized dose of hopelessness this morning.
John Ioannidis is a respected epidemiologist at Stanford. His specialty is “metascience,” i.e. calling BS on shoddy medical research. The point of this new piece isn’t to declare that the data on coronavirus is shoddy; the point is to declare that we just don’t have enough of it yet to feel confident about how dangerous the disease is. And that matters a lot when you’re implementing policies with massive social repercussions like shutting down the global economy and passing trillion-dollar stimuluses.
At bottom his argument is the same as Dr. Jeremy Faust’s, who I’ve written about before. What if there are a ton more people walking around with asymptomatic COVID-19 than we realize?