[Ed. – The verdict mounts. Effects on the oil trade are manageable at the moment, but this isn’t the Iran-Iraq War in 1987-88. Iran isn’t preoccupied with Iraq, or vice versa; Iran’s main effort now is complicating the conditions of the oil trade. It will take some fancy footwork to get inside their OODA loop. Meanwhile, the insurer’s conclusions about the method for the attacks are pretty much what I suggested in the last post.]
Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) are “highly likely” to have facilitated attacks last Sunday on four tankers including two Saudi ships off Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, according to a Norwegian insurers’ report seen by Reuters.
The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Norway are investigating the attacks, which also hit a UAE- and a Norwegian-flagged vessel.
A confidential assessment issued this week by the Norwegian Shipowners’ Mutual War Risks Insurance Association (DNK) concluded that the attack was likely to have been carried out by a surface vessel operating close by that despatched underwater drones carrying 30-50 kg (65-110 lb) of high-grade explosives to detonate on impact.