The big question about Donald Trump’s rise in the polls

The big question about Donald Trump’s rise in the polls

Of all the opinion polls that have come out in the past few days, one in particular caught my eye. It was carried out in Michigan for the DetroitFree Press and WXYZ-TV, a Detroit station, and it showed that, in the past month, Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump in the Great Lakes State has narrowed from ten points to four points in a head-to-head matchup. “The race is tightening a lot in Michigan,” Bernie Porn, the pollster who carried out the statewide telephone survey, told the Free Press. “It may be a function of the timing of the survey and her health questions, [but] there has been a shift toward Trump. Whether it’s going to be a permanent shift is yet to be determined.”

If that line of thinking goes for Michigan, a state that hasn’t voted Republican in a Presidential contest since 1988, it also goes for much of the rest of the country. On August 10th, Hillary Clinton was leading Donald Trump by almost eight percentage points in a head-to-head match, according to the Real Clear Politics poll average. By Friday morning, the gap had narrowed to 1.5 percentage points. A poll from CBS News and the New York Times showed that Trump had pulled to within two points of Clinton among likely voters. A Fox News survey of likely voters showed Clinton leading by one point in a four-way race including two third-party candidates—Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. But the poll also showed Trump leading by one point in a head-to-head match up with Clinton.

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