[I]t’s probably premature to write [Donald Trump] off for November — assuming he will be the Republican squaring off against Hillary Clinton.
Let’s run through the arguments:
Mr. Trump has high negatives.
Notwithstanding the manifest enthusiasm of Trump voters for their man, they often fail to appreciate that he may turn off more voters than he turns on. Real Clear Politics puts the average of his negatives at 63.2% That would help explain his failure thus far to break 50% in any Republican primary, and it justifies worries about how he’d fare among, say, Latinos and women come November.
But Mrs. Clinton has very high negatives too. Her own RCP average is 53.9%.
Mrs. Clinton will use her knowledge and experience to make Mr. Trump look like an ignorant yahoo.
Maybe. But again there are two caveats.