1. It’s unclear Trump loses a three-person race
An Economist/YouGov national survey released last week tested the theory that Trump would suffer in a three-person race with his two chief rivals. It found Trump winning with 46 percent of the vote, ahead of Marco Rubio with 28 percent and Ted Cruz with 26 percent.
Republican strategist Patrick Ruffini said the poll called into question the theory.
Corroborating that finding, an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll in January found Trump leading with 40 percent to Cruz’s 31 percent and Rubio’s 26 percent.
2. Trump’s ‘hard ceiling’ is overrated
The Cruz and Rubio campaigns have, in recent days, made the case that Trump has run up against his polling ceiling.
“Donald Trump’s electoral ceiling is in the mid 30s,” Rubio campaign manager Terry Sullivan wrote in a memo distributed on Sunday after the South Carolina primary. “Simply put, Donald Trump can never get to 50 percent and only will continue as a front-runner as long as the field is crowded.”