Donald Trump is leading Iowa according to the latest Des Moines Register poll. But his lead is within the margin of error, and there is plenty of reason to suspect the electorate is still very fluid.
1) Trump’s lead is vulnerable to turnout weakness
Trump’s lead is five points in this survey, that’s smaller than other recent surveys. It is widely assumed Ted Cruz will have a strong turnout operation (which is more crucial in caucus states than in primary states), and that Donald Trump will have a weak one. If these assumptions are true, that five point lead should be considered a tie — especially given the 4.4 percent margin of error in the poll.
2) Nearly half of electorate is persuadable
While only 10 percent of respondents declared themselves uncommitted or unsure, a lot more are actually up for grabs. A full 45 percent of respondents said they “could still be persuaded” to change their mind. This corresponds with my experience talking to voters this weekend.