For months, the press and the Republican establishment alike have been expecting the Trump bubble to implode. Now that it’s clear Trump isn’t going anywhere, we’re seeing stories about a long slog of a campaign or even a brokered convention. But there’s a very real possibility that, far from those kinds of days of reckoning, Donald Trump could actually “run the table.” Ironically, Trump not only could win — he could win more decisively than any non-incumbent Republican contestant for the nomination since the dawn of the modern primary system.
Let’s see how that might happen.
First, let’s look not at Iowa, but at New Hampshire. Trump has been leading in New Hampshire by double-digits since August. If those polls are to believed, Trump is poised not only to win, but to win decisively.
Conventional wisdom is that whichever establishment-friendly candidate places second — at this point John Kasich is lined up behind Trump, butMarco Rubio, Chris Christie, and even Jeb Bush are all said to have a shot — is going to be Trump’s most-viable challenger for the nomination. But if Donald Trump dominates with 30 to 40 percent of the vote in New Hampshire, and they come in 15 to 20 points behind, how is that possible?