For the United States of America, the bad news is that after eight years of President Obama, an extraordinary amount of work will need to be done to restore American liberty, prosperity, and constitutionalism. The good news, however, is this: History suggests that parties that hold the White House for two consecutive terms only win a third straight term if the outgoing president is a lot more popular than Obama.
The historical evidence suggests that, the more popular a two-term president, the more likely it is that his party’s intended successor will win. Moreover, by the summertime of a president’s sixth year in office, Americans generally appear to have seen enough to have formed solid — perhaps entrenched — opinions about his performance. In fact, a president’s popularity in the summer of year 6 has proven to be a far better predictor of such elections than has his popularity as of the summer of year 5, the summer of year 7, or even the eve of Election Day in year 8.