If you follow debates about demographics and political coalitions, you were hit with something of a bomb blast when John Judis’ inaugural piece in the National Journal came out in late January.
Judis is one of the original co-authors of the ur-text for the modern debate, the 2002 book “The Emerging Democratic Majority.” In it, he and Ruy Teixeira suggested that the growth of the minority population, combined with emerging Democratic strength with professionals and residual Democratic strength with working-class whites, would allow Democrats to win the majority of elections in the medium term. This has become informally known as the emerging Democratic majority thesis.
Judis’ lengthy essay is a big deal, and well worth reading. He argues that Republicans have managed to bring together middle- and working-class whites, as well as middle-class Hispanics, who don’t see the obvious advantages to the Democratic platform that poor and upper-class voters do. This has allowed Republicans to win expanded majorities in the House and Senate and to compete effectively for the presidency. In short, Judis now sees an emerging Republican advantage.