Democratic political strategist David Plouffe made waves a few weeks back when he suggested that Texas, Arizona and Georgia would soon become blue-ish states. His analysis is here and also reflected below:
“All three have large minority populations that, in the case of Georgia and Texas, have been getting larger at a rapid clip and that vote primarily Democratic. . . . Each of these states has postindustrial areas where the Democrats are doing well. . . . The Democrats have a chance in all three of these states if the minority vote continues to grow, if white voters eventually experience the same kind of cultural change that residents of other ideopolises have.”
Okay, Plouffe did suggest that these states would be the next ones to flip, but the quote isn’t actually from him. It is John Judis and Ruy Teixeira, writing in their seminal “The Emerging Democratic Majority” back in 2002. Here Judis and Teixeira are actually writing about Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee, though elsewhere they suggested that Arizona would be roughly as competitive as Colorado throughout the decade.
This chart shows how Texas, Georgia, Arizona and (just for fun) Tennessee have moved over the past decade: