Could Democrats gain Senate seats this fall?

Could Democrats gain Senate seats this fall?

It’s a virtual article of faith among election analysts that Republicans will gain Senate seats in the 2014 midterms.  I tend to agree with that assessment, and strongly so. In fact, like other forecasters such as Alan Abramowitz and Nate Silver, I think Republicans have the edge in the battle to take control of the upper chamber this November.

But there is one place where I part company with most forecasters. I’m not 100 percent confident that Republicans will gain seats. In fact, when I analyzed the Senate races in February, my simulation created a few scenarios where Republicans did, in fact, lose seats. (It’s also worth remembering that while a seven-to-nine seat Republican gain was the most likely scenario, in about 60 percent of the scenarios, Republicans gained some number other than seven, eight, or nine.)

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