Primarying Cornyn in Texas: Is Stockman in the ‘Cruz’ position?

Primarying Cornyn in Texas: Is Stockman in the ‘Cruz’ position?

Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Texas) 2012 electoral situation becomes an obvious model for the race in which Stockman, Stovall, and five others are currently embroiled with Mr. Cornyn.

The challengers’ objective will be to place second, and deny the senator outright victory on March 4. Two years ago, Mr. Cruz scored 34.2 percent of the vote in a Republican primary field of nine candidates, holding favored candidate David Dewhurst, the state’s sitting lieutenant governor, to 44.6 percent. In the run-off, with 22 percents less voters participating than from the first vote, Cruz went on to swamp Dewhurst, 57 to 43 percent.

Could the same fate await Cornyn? …

According to the current Gravis survey, Sen. Cornyn leads Rep. Stockman only 43 to 28 percent. The polling sample favorably views both men, though Cornyn’s 49 to 27 percent positive-to-negative is somewhat weak, remembering that the polling sample is comprised [sic] exclusively of his own party’s primary voters. Mr. Stockman scores a 28 to 18 percent favorability index, though 55 percent of the respondents either are unsure about him or don’t have an opinion.

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The poll’s flaw, however, is not testing any candidate beyond the aforementioned two, meaning the results are not an accurate depiction of the actual Texas primary ballot. Still, the omission is not likely to help Cornyn because choosing among a larger number of options would give respondents even more opportunity to oppose the incumbent. …

Sen. Cornyn had raised more than $7.5 million for this primary race by the end of 2013, and holding another $6.5 million in the bank. Stockman obtained just under $435,000 but had already spent 90 percent of that total. [Tea Party favorite Dwayne] Stovall didn’t even reach $30,000 in receipts.

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