The Federal Reserve continues to discuss a return to normal labor markets as one threshold for normalizing monetary policy. But according to one economic forecast group, a few states won’t return to pre-recession employment levels until 2018.
IHS Global Insight predicts that only 18 states will have employment levels at or above their previous peaks by the end of this year. Most other states will see a new peak in 2014 or 2015. (Some states, including Alaska, North Dakota and New York, have already seen payrolls rebound to new highs)
That leaves about one-fifth of states still lagging in employment at the time when the Fed is widely expected to be raising interest rates. According to the IHS forecasters, eight states will have to wait until 2016. The three longest laggards, says IHS, will be Michigan, Rhode Island and Nevada.