Donald Trump won the White House and Republicans hold majorities in the US House and Senate, but Democrats have held out hope that there is light at the end of the tunnel.
History suggests that by the time the midterm elections come along, the party not holding the White House will make significant gains. Just as Republicans took over Congress in 1994 and 2010 two years into a new president’s term, so too would Democrats take over Congress in 2018 and push back on Trump’s agenda.
That isn’t likely to happen.
Democrats need a tremendous amount to go right politically next year for them to even have a shot at a majority in either house of Congress.
Consider the Senate. It is possible that in the history of the country, a party has never been so close to a majority — Democrats need to flip just three seats — yet so far away from actually getting it.
Counting the two independents who caucus with Democrats, Republicans have a 52-to-48 advantage. In 2018, there are 34 seats up for reelection. Twenty-five of them are those who caucus with Democrats and just nine are Republicans.