A couple of weeks ago in this space I pushed back against assertions by FiveThirtyEight number-cruncher Harry Enten that Gary Johnson’s polls have been “trending downwards,” indicating that “voters may be moving away from third-party options.” Well, today Enten is back with an interesting piece headlined “Gary Johnson Isn’t Fading.”
While noting what we have been warning you about here for years—third-party candidates typically see their crest of polling support halved by Election Day, according to Gallup—Enten explains that Johnson’s numbers have so far not followed this pattern. In fact, the Libertarian may have already weathered the most difficult part of the calendar: “Most third-party candidates didn’t lose that much support between late summer and Election Day,” Enten writes. “Besides John Anderson in 1980, no candidate ended up finishing more than 3 percentage points below where they were polling in late August. The average drop-off is about 2 percentage points.”
So how does Johnson’s 9 percent stack up at this point in the campaign against other third-party candidates since World War II? According to numbers compiled by Enten here, fourth place, behind Ross Perot in 1992 (20 percent then, finished at 19), George Wallace in ’68 (17/14), and Anderson in ’80 (14/7).