New poll: Hillary’s post-DNC lead a dead-cat bounce?

New poll: Hillary’s post-DNC lead a dead-cat bounce?

[Ed. – Nyaah-nyaah, told you so.  The big factor here seems to be that the first poll after the DNC overstated the rush to Hillary, because it changed how undecided voters’ sentiments were being counted.  Now that that methodology change is the standard, the sudden surge for Hillary is back in context — i.e., it was never there at all.  OK, so, technically, that’s not a dead-cat bounce.  But you should never miss a chance to put “dead cat” and “Hillary” in the same headline.]

Jazz blogged it this morning but it’s newsy enough to warrant a follow-up, as it represents the first strong sign that Hillary’s convention bounce — and/or the backlash from the Trump/Khan dust-up — is fading. Jazz makes two good points for why we should believe the result. …

But there are a few quirks that should be noted. Open up Reuters’s graph of its results, which can be customized to show trends among different groups via filters at the bottom, and follow along.

1. Traditionally it’s been common for likely voters to vote more Republican than registered voters do. That’s what you see in this poll too: Hillary leads by nearly six points among registereds but by less than three among likelies. …

After the Democratic convention, Reuters saw Trump’s lead among white likely voters narrow dramatically but today they have it sitting at … exactly 10 points, less than half of what it was two weeks ago. In other words, although Trump is counting heavily on whites to propel him to victory and although his lead among that group is a measly half of what it was for Romney in 2012, somehow he’s nonetheless trailing Hillary by a smaller margin (2.4 points) than Romney ended up losing to Obama (3.9 points). How can that be possible?

The answer: Lots and lots and lots of whites who, for the moment, aren’t supporting either Trump or Hillary. More than 20 percent(!!) of Reuters’s sample of white likely voters chose “other,” refused to answer about their presidential preference, or said they won’t vote this year.

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