Shock, shock: Economy may not have grown at all in first quarter

Shock, shock: Economy may not have grown at all in first quarter

[Ed. – Inexplicable, right?  With a record 94 million or more people not in the labor force, who can account for this strange lack of growth?]

It may turn out the economy did not grow at all in the first quarter.

Trade data released Tuesday show the U.S. deficit widened more than expected to $47.1 billion in February and was a bigger drag on growth than expected. It’s the latest economic metric that chiseled away at the tracking model for first quarter growth.

The median of economists who participate in the CNBC/Moody’s Analytics Rapid Update is now 0.5 percent for tracking GDP growth, down from 0.9 percent last week. Their average forecast for growth is 1.1 percent.

Given the average, and substantial, revisions to government GDP data, that 0.5 percent could easily turn into a negative number, or a much higher number. That is based on a CNBC study that examined every report going back to 1990 and found an average error rate of 1.3 percentage points in either direction.

Continue reading →


Commenting Policy

We have no tolerance for comments containing violence, racism, vulgarity, profanity, all caps, or discourteous behavior. Thank you for partnering with us to maintain a courteous and useful public environment where we can engage in reasonable discourse.

You may use HTML in your comments. Feel free to review the full list of allowed HTML here.