Republicans are expected to win the White House under two economic models that have accurately forecast presidential elections for decades.
A third model run by Moody’s Analytics predicts Democrats will win the White House, in part because of President Obama’s rising approval rating.
The three models are being challenged like never before by the presence of GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump, whose campaign has shaken up politics.
Trump’s fights with Ted Cruz and his other GOP rivals have electrified his supporters but have turned off other voters. A Washington Post-ABC poll last week found that 67 percent of registered voters held an unfavorable view of the outspoken billionaire. That has given hope to Democrats that even with a weakened Hillary Clinton as their nominee, their party could cruise to victory.
“As economists this is a very unusual election and there’s a lot more uncertainty introduced this time around that could upset the balance and the historical relationship of how marginal voters vote,” said Dan White, an economist with Moody’s Analytics who oversees the firm’s monthly election model.